I think you are pretty right, especially concerning point 'b)'! That, plus that most ships we get jumped by are pretty big ships and HAMs have an explosion radius of 125m, which isnt even so big, considering the signature radius of a Caracal (cruiser) is 145m already.
The only thing in your fit I dare to question is the use of the target painter. Esp. in gangs, this could better be left to Minmatar with bonuses, and I think a webifier would be very nice instead, because then you slow down the targeted ship, which will benefit the damage of your missiles, having only a explosion speed of 101 m/s.